Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 9.830741e-05 0.000117 0.000137 0.000160 0.000185 0.000211 0.000241
2024-10-13 7.412344e-05 0.000098 0.000126 0.000159 0.000196 0.000238 0.000287
2024-10-20 5.848875e-05 0.000084 0.000115 0.000154 0.000199 0.000251 0.000313
2024-10-27 4.788437e-05 0.000075 0.000110 0.000154 0.000208 0.000270 0.000347
2024-11-03 3.702028e-05 0.000064 0.000099 0.000146 0.000205 0.000274 0.000361
2024-11-10 3.174754e-05 0.000059 0.000097 0.000149 0.000215 0.000294 0.000395
2024-11-17 2.542571e-05 0.000052 0.000090 0.000144 0.000215 0.000302 0.000413
2024-11-24 2.132973e-05 0.000048 0.000087 0.000145 0.000221 0.000316 0.000439
2024-12-01 1.760842e-05 0.000043 0.000083 0.000143 0.000225 0.000327 0.000461
2024-12-08 1.362807e-05 0.000038 0.000078 0.000139 0.000224 0.000332 0.000476
2024-12-15 1.063619e-05 0.000034 0.000073 0.000135 0.000224 0.000338 0.000491
2024-12-22 8.362185e-06 0.000030 0.000069 0.000133 0.000225 0.000346 0.000509
2024-12-29 6.631609e-06 0.000028 0.000068 0.000135 0.000235 0.000367 0.000546
2025-01-05 4.830246e-06 0.000025 0.000065 0.000135 0.000241 0.000383 0.000578
2025-01-12 3.002546e-06 0.000020 0.000059 0.000130 0.000239 0.000388 0.000596
2025-01-19 2.100263e-06 0.000018 0.000057 0.000131 0.000246 0.000406 0.000629
2025-01-26 9.942986e-07 0.000014 0.000051 0.000123 0.000240 0.000404 0.000637
2025-02-02 6.733282e-07 0.000013 0.000050 0.000126 0.000250 0.000425 0.000675
2025-02-09 2.716097e-07 0.000011 0.000046 0.000122 0.000249 0.000430 0.000692
2025-02-16 1.202592e-07 0.000010 0.000045 0.000122 0.000254 0.000446 0.000722
2025-02-23 2.856130e-08 0.000008 0.000042 0.000121 0.000257 0.000456 0.000746
2025-03-02 1.644178e-10 0.000006 0.000039 0.000117 0.000255 0.000461 0.000762
2025-03-09 NaN 0.000005 0.000036 0.000114 0.000255 0.000466 0.000779